Peace Breakthrough

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

A lower-probability breakthrough emerges if Putin’s rejection is tactical rather than final and outside powers offer a process Moscow can claim as reciprocal. This would require U.S., Ukrainian and European alignment on sequencing, monitoring and sanctions language.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.8%
Finance+0.6%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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