Possible scenario
Protests Reignite
20% Chance
The modernization priority is interpreted inside Iran as preparation for a harsher crackdown, prompting students, women’s-rights networks, and labor groups to mobilize. Security forces respond forcefully, reviving the protest cycle that began after Mahsa Amini’s death.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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