Possible scenario
IRGC Security Buildout
38% Chance
Parliament turns the modernization drive into a centralized internal-security program dominated by the IRGC and Law Enforcement Command of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Procurement focuses on surveillance cameras, school riot-control units, facial-recognition databases, and anti-satellite-internet capabilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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