Possible scenario
Orderly Exchange Rollout
45% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled rollout led by regulated exchanges and broker-dealers, with tokenized stock trading beginning in a limited list of highly liquid U.S. names. The SEC’s first TSV order gives incumbents a template without fully rewriting market structure rules.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- NDAQ+2.7%
- COIN+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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