Possible scenario
Tariff Drag Intensifies
20% Chance
The payroll decline is linked to the same U.S. tariff pressure that forced the BoC to cut its fourth-quarter growth forecast in September. Investors focus on export-exposed manufacturers, materials producers and transport companies as the weak currency reflects a broader competitiveness shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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