Possible scenario
Weakness Proves Temporary
25% Chance
The initial reaction fades if investors find the job losses concentrated in volatile categories or offset by still-resilient wages and participation. In this path, the Canadian dollar steadies and domestic equities recover part of the initial decline.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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