Possible scenario
Democrats Win House
27% Chance
The Republican decision to conserve Senate resources accelerates Democratic gains in competitive House races. Democrats win the House while the Senate remains unresolved or narrowly Republican, creating a split-control baseline rather than a unified Democratic government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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