Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Expands
20% Chance
The spending cut is interpreted as confirmation that Republican polling has deteriorated beyond public surveys. Democratic momentum spreads from House races into Senate contests, raising the probability of unified Democratic control or at least a Democratic Senate.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Energy -0.7%
- Healthcare -0.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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