Possible scenario
NATO Border Risk
20% Chance
Because the attack occurred in Western Ukraine, follow-on Russian sorties increase the chance of debris, airspace violations, or emergency interceptions near Poland, Slovakia, or Romania. The base case remains containment, but even a near miss would raise short-term risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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