Possible scenario
Jet-Drone Campaign Expands
35% Chance
Russia continues shifting from propeller Shaheds to heavier jet-powered Geran-6 systems, using Western Ukraine as a test bed for attacks beyond Kyiv. The most likely path is a sustained but contained campaign against residential, power, and rail targets rather than a sudden war-wide breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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