Possible scenario
Escorted Flows Hold
36% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues loading crude aggressively while US and Gulf naval escorts deter further attacks. The blockage becomes porous rather than absolute, allowing most contracted Asian cargoes to move with delays and higher insurance costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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