Possible scenario
Disruption Resumes
30% Chance
Iran or aligned forces renew pressure on the shipping lane with mines, drones, missiles, or boarding threats. Flows do not fully stop, but each additional incident forces shipowners, insurers, and Asian buyers to reprice near-term supply security.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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