Possible scenario
Republican Catch-Up
29% Chance
Republicans narrow the Democratic early-vote lead through stronger late mail returns and in-person turnout. This would make the 2026 pattern look less like a clean Democratic reversal and more like a temporary timing advantage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.