Possible scenario
Democratic Edge Holds
38% Chance
Democrats maintain a meaningful Clark County early-vote advantage as mail returns and in-person voting continue. This would mark a durable reversal of the 2024 pattern and strengthen Democratic confidence in Las Vegas-area turnout for statewide and House races.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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