Possible scenario
Limited Saudi Retaliation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with targeted strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in Yemen, likely with intelligence support from the United States or regional partners. The aim is deterrence without a broader war, but the risk of another Houthi salvo remains elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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