Possible scenario
Contained Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities restore most Riyadh airport operations while tightening air-defense coverage and passenger screening. This is the most likely path because the attacks have repeatedly disrupted flights but have not yet produced confirmed damage to major oil or military infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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