Possible scenario
Washington Reverses Course
25% Chance
The White House, National Security Council, or Congress forces a limited reversal after pressure from Kyiv and NATO capitals. The compromise preserves some U.S. inventory while restarting Patriot deliveries to Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Tickers
- +3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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