Possible scenario
Block Holds
40% Chance
Hegseth's decision remains in force and the Pentagon does not release additional Patriot interceptors from U.S. stocks. Ukraine is forced to ration remaining air-defense coverage around Kyiv, critical grid nodes, and selected military sites.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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