• 

  

  40%+0.1%

  Clean Breakup Proceeds

  CVS executes the announced split largely as planned, arguing that the Aetna insurance business and the CVS Pharmacy retail network will trade at higher valuations as simpler companies. The recent FTC settlement reduces one major overhang, making a tax-efficient separation the most likely path.

  Healthcare +0.5% · Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%

• 

  

  25%−0.1%

  Regulators Reshape Split

  The separation advances, but the FTC, CMS, and state insurance regulators impose conditions tied to PBM contracting, Medicare Advantage bidding, and data sharing between Aetna and Caremark. The deal remains viable, but the final structure is less favorable to CVS shareholders.

  Healthcare −0.5%

• 

  

  20%0.0%

  Plan Is Recut

  CVS determines that a full separation of retail pharmacy and insurance creates too much debt, tax leakage, or operational disruption. Management still pursues simplification, but the final transaction is narrower than the headline plan.

  Healthcare +0.2%

• 

  

  15%0.0%

  Breakup Is Dropped

  CVS reverses or pauses the split after renewed Medicare Advantage cost pressure, debt concerns, or weaker retail pharmacy cash flow make the separation less attractive. This is less likely given the formal plan, but still plausible because the company has a history of guidance cuts and complex integration issues.

  Healthcare −0.2%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.