Possible scenario
Federal Preemption Prevails
42% Chance
The CFTC finalizes a version of the swap rule that treats prediction-market event contracts as federally regulated swaps or swap-like instruments under the Commodity Exchange Act. Courts give meaningful deference to the agency's preemption theory, limiting state gambling regulators' ability to block CFTC-regulated markets.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- IBKR+1.3%
- HOOD+0.8%
- FLUT-0.7%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.