Possible scenario
Courts Check CFTC
27% Chance
State gambling regulators and attorneys general successfully argue that the CFTC is overreaching by recasting broad prediction-market activity as swaps. Courts keep state enforcement authority alive while litigation over the Commodity Exchange Act and state police powers continues.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- IBKR-1.4%
- DKNG+1.4%
- FLUT+1.1%
- HOOD-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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