Possible scenario
Denial Is Substantiated
48% Chance
CENTCOM's denial is corroborated by U.S. Navy accounting, coalition partners, or lack of wreckage imagery. AnsarAllah's claim is treated as propaganda or misidentification, limiting military and market follow-through.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.