Possible scenario
Ambiguity Drives Retaliation
18% Chance
Evidence remains inconclusive, but U.S. officials determine Houthi systems may have targeted or endangered a U.S. aircraft. Washington responds with limited strikes to restore deterrence without confirming a shootdown.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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