Possible scenario
Wider Infrastructure Escalation
15% Chance
Russia intensifies its campaign against generation and transmission assets, trying to degrade Ukraine's grid before colder weather. This would be a more material escalation than the current headline, though still short of direct NATO-Russia conflict in the most likely branch.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.