Possible scenario
Contained Grid Campaign
45% Chance
Russia continues using mixed missile and drone salvos against Ukraine's electricity system, but the scale remains similar to recent attacks. Ukrainian air defenses and repair crews limit outages to local or regional disruptions rather than a nationwide power crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Utilities -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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