Possible scenario
Contained Kyiv Outages
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Ukrainian repair crews and backup routing contain the disruption to parts of Kyiv. Russia continues probing with drones, but the attack does not materially alter the military or macroeconomic trajectory of the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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