Possible scenario
Sustained Grid Campaign
30% Chance
Russia follows the Kyiv attack with repeated strikes on power and communications nodes before winter. The campaign pressures Ukraine's air-defense inventory and increases Western focus on interceptors, generators, and grid repair equipment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Utilities -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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