Launches Presidential Bid
−0.2%
Ocasio-Cortez converts draft energy into a formal presidential effort, likely framed around labor power, housing costs, climate policy and anti-monopoly enforcement. The scenario is plausible because the DSA’s 2026 gains and union pressure create an organized lane to the left of establishment Democrats.
What it moves
- Finance−0.4%
- Healthcare−0.4%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.