Possible scenario
Early Technical Problems
20% Chance
A less likely but material risk is that MMX encounters propulsion, communications, power, or attitude-control problems after launch. Such issues would not be macroeconomic in scale, but they would hurt sentiment around Japanese space contractors and the H3 launch program.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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