Possible scenario
Saudi Military Response
27% Chance
Riyadh responds with targeted strikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure in northern Yemen, seeking deterrence without a full return to the pre-2022 war tempo. The risk is that repeated attacks on Saudi airports make a military response politically necessary even if Oman-led mediation remains active.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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