Possible scenario
Contained Air Alerts
38% Chance
The most likely path is continued Houthi launches toward southern Saudi Arabia with most projectiles intercepted by Saudi air defenses. Abha, Najran, and Jizan remain on alert, but the conflict does not immediately expand into a broader regional confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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