Possible scenario
Lawler Holds NY-17
44% Chance
Mike Lawler converts Jared Golden's endorsement into validation with independents and anti-shutdown Democrats in the Hudson Valley. The result keeps NY-17 in Republican hands and makes the seat a symbol of ticket-splitting in a highly competitive House map.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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