Possible scenario
Democrats Flip Seat
34% Chance
The Democratic nominee overcomes Golden's endorsement by nationalizing the race around House control, abortion rights, and local affordability. Lawler's bipartisan image remains strong, but it is insufficient in a district Democrats had targeted for months.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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