Election Legitimacy Disputes
−0.1%
Foreign influence activity becomes part of post-election disputes in closely contested races, especially where margins are narrow and online narratives claim fraud or suppression. The most likely path is litigation and congressional hearings rather than a constitutional crisis.
What it moves
- Finance−0.3%
- Business Services+0.2%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.