Possible scenario
Managed Testing Resumes
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a practical compromise: UK testers regain access, but the White House keeps a defined first-look process for the most sensitive unreleased models. This preserves the UK-US AI defense partnership while limiting US concerns about premature foreign review of frontier systems.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Business Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.3%
- PLTR+0.2%
- GOOG+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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