Possible scenario
Orderly MSCI Exit
45% Chance
MSCI proceeds with the new non-operating-company framework and index funds sell MicroStrategy on the published timetable. The most likely outcome is a sharp but contained equity-flow event, with limited spillover beyond crypto-treasury stocks.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
- MSTR-10.1%
- MSCI+1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.