Possible scenario
Delay Or Carveout
25% Chance
MSCI moderates the immediate impact by clarifying implementation dates, transition mechanics, or grandfathering provisions. This would reduce forced-sale risk and likely produce a relief rally in MicroStrategy and other digital-asset treasury names.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
Tickers
- MSTR+9.6%
- MSCI-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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