Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic House
55% Chance
Democrats convert their polling and Polymarket advantage into a small House majority, with Hakeem Jeffries replacing Mike Johnson as speaker. The result matches the direction of late-cycle polling, Trump’s weak approval rating, and the retirement drag facing House Republicans.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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