Possible scenario
Clear Democratic Wave
30% Chance
Democrats outperform the already favorable baseline and win a working majority larger than most forecasters expected. Suburban districts, retiree-heavy Republican seats, and anti-Trump turnout combine to produce a broader-than-expected House flip.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.2%
- Finance -1.0%
- Healthcare +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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