Possible scenario
Tightness Persists
45% Chance
The most likely path is that US diesel remains near record levels because Russia's export ban, low inventories, and constrained refinery output keep distillate supply tight. Refiners capture strong margins while trucking, logistics, agriculture, and diesel-heavy industrial users face higher operating costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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