Possible scenario
Demand Destruction Emerges
20% Chance
Record diesel prices begin to curb freight activity and discretionary movement, especially in trucking, construction, and agriculture. This path would reduce some fuel demand but introduce broader concerns about margins and economic momentum.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Industrials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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