Possible scenario
Washington Reimposes Limits
25% Chance
The White House and Pentagon move to restrict or condition Starlink use for offensive attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine publicly objects, but the near-term market effect is a lower perceived risk of refinery disruption and a renewed political dispute over U.S. support.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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