Possible scenario
Energy Truce Talks
20% Chance
Despite public rejection of a broad ceasefire, intermediaries push a narrower arrangement covering refineries, power plants, and export terminals. This is plausible because both sides may want to limit energy infrastructure losses without conceding territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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