Possible scenario
Bill Stalls Quickly
30% Chance
The proposal draws attention but fails to gain a durable bipartisan coalition. Republican leadership, venture-backed AI firms, and parts of the defense community argue that a ban would slow U.S. competition with China, leaving the bill stalled in committee.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA+0.5%
- MSFT+0.4%
- PLTR+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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