Blame Narrative Consolidates

40%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that Hannity’s comments become part of a broader Republican effort to explain the midterm losses without directly repudiating Trump. The Iran war is framed as a political liability, but the administration does not immediately change policy.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.1%
Finance−0.1%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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