Possible scenario
Republican Split Widens
13% Chance
Bolduc's endorsement becomes the first visible sign of a larger New Hampshire Republican split. If additional conservative veterans, local activists, or 2022 Bolduc supporters follow him, Pappas could turn a close contest into a clearer Democratic hold.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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