Possible scenario
Closure Holds
38% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the FBI's 2025 decision to end the inquiry remains intact, with the Justice Department declining to reopen a politically sensitive contractor-money case. Susan Collins and Republican allies frame the matter as resolved, while critics continue to question the Trump-era personnel changes that preceded the halt.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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