Civil Settlement Path

Polymarket resolves the card-fraud and regulatory-fines controversy through a negotiated civil settlement rather than a criminal escalation. This is the most likely path because the platform has prior CFTC history, regulators can extract penalties and compliance reforms, and a shutdown would be harder to justify if users are made whole.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.