Possible scenario
Legal Friction Contained
20% Chance
The criminal process becomes the main focus, with Japanese authorities moving toward indictment while U.S. officials cooperate under the existing Status of Forces Agreement. Diplomatic tension persists but remains manageable because both governments want to preserve deterrence near Taiwan and the East China Sea.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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