Possible scenario
Curfew Stabilizes Situation
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that U.S. Forces Japan and the III Marine Expeditionary Force use the month-long curfew to show discipline and prevent further incidents. Tokyo and Washington keep the alliance dispute contained while Japanese prosecutors proceed with the criminal case.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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